Human Factor Based Failures in Technology Forecasting

Publication Type:

Journal Article


Journal of Defence & Security Technologies, Volume 3, Issue 1, Number 3, p.42-54 (2020)



cognitive biases, human factors, technology forecasting


<p>The subject of this paper is the technology forecasting failures. The topic is investigated by focusing on the human-related factors and cognitive pitfalls affecting human reasoning, based on a literature review. These factors are described and framed in the perspective of the seminal work by Kahneman. Four technology foresight errors made in the past by experts in the field are selected as representative case studies and analysed in terms of cognitive issues. Approaches to the problem are reported, considering the studies carried out in previous EC-funded project LEILA and RECOBIA. Finally, the outcomes of a questionnaire proposed within the EC-funded project PYTHIA are reported, outlining that technology forecasting failure is still a prevailing problem and improvements are needed in terms of forecasting strategies and training for reducing cognitive pitfalls, highlighting the strategic importance of the afore-mentioned projects.</p>